Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2069
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 31 2023 03:20:51

ACUS11 KWNS 310320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310320=20
NDZ000-310515-

Mesoscale Discussion 2069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Areas affected...western ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 310320Z - 310515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts (peak gusts 50-65 mph) will be
possible for the next few hours across western ND as a thunderstorm
band moves east.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an intensifying band of
thunderstorms near the northeast MT/northwest ND border region and
another linear cluster in southwest ND immediately ahead of a potent
mid-level shortwave low/trough.  There has been a history of
ASOS-measured strong to severe gusts in eastern MT in association
with this convection during the past couple of hours.  The recent
development/intensification of thunderstorms has coincided with a
long-lived thunderstorm cluster and its associated outflow reaching
a more moist airmass located over western ND (lower 60s deg F
surface dewpoints compared to 40s to lower 50s over eastern MT).=20
Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates evident on the 00z Glasgow, MT and
Bismarck, ND raobs (7 to 8 deg C/km) and strong large-scale forcing
for ascent will continue to promote strong to severe thunderstorm
activity.  The confined spatial and temporal extent of the expected
threat will preclude the need for a small severe thunderstorm watch.

...Smith/Grams.. 08/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7D3xWE_UHHpFbulpkRPyN7H8gede_fOryLHkvmK1k2WfHW22wiNkmxguWTyvLvgwL7FX0FJxC=
myMW7m4LeYtNHTxQUI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   48300389 48820398 49050265 48470182 47150142 46540204
            46450317 48300389=20


=3D =3D =3D
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