Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2067
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 30 2023 21:36:47

ACUS11 KWNS 302136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302136=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-302230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2067
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0436 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Carolina coast

Concerning...Tornado Watch 662...

Valid 302136Z - 302230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 662 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for mini supercells and an attendant risk for a
couple of tornadoes will likely continue to move northeast up the
Carolina coast through the evening.  A tornado watch will be
considered to include portions of the Outer Banks to the northeast
of the Tornado Watch #662 when the environment becomes more
favorable for tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Late afternoon radar imagery from KLTX (Wilmington, NC)
shows a cluster of quasi-discrete supercells near the northeast SC
coast/Grand Strand vicinity and adjacent continental shelf waters
south of Cape Fear.  A significant increase in low-level shear has
been observed at KLTX during the past 2 hours with 0-1 km SRH (using
observed storm motion) in excess of 400 m2/s2.  With a nearly
saturated profile and mid 70s surface dewpoints, only weak buoyancy
is analyzed.  However, the strengthening low-level shear profiles
and enlarging hodographs will continue to be favorable for low-level
mesocyclones over the next few hours as the outer bands of Idalia
continue northeastward up the coast.  The area of favorable
shear/buoyancy will probably overspread portions of the Outer Banks
later this evening.

...Smith/Grams.. 08/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6-MAbkjgP9mUBrhX6VGIjdOas2MaIUMOojphbZZ2qBHJ90aOeY-XRn0fq223X6lyJDBmEs1dX=
nzfbZAj7GrtM39MIJI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON   33427996 33767980 35397647 35447595 35287554 34847542
            32957915 33147971 33427996=20


=3D =3D =3D
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