Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Aug 30 2023 19:35:17 ACUS01 KWNS 301935 SWODY1 SPC AC 301933 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE IDALIA... ....SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are expected through tonight mainly across the coastal Carolinas in association with Hurricane Idalia. ....Carolinas... The center of T.C. Idalia is forecast to move northeastward along the coastal counties of SC through tonight, and toward the Wilmington NC area by Thursday morning. Observations indicate upper 70s F dewpoints already in place across these areas, with broken bands of cells developing over the ocean and proceeding northwestward over land. Low-level shear will remain strong and favorable for tornadic supercells with 0-1 SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2 developing northeastward ahead of the storm center. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2066. Tornado watch 662 remains in effect. ...Jewell.. 08/30/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023/ ....Southeast Atlantic coast through tonight... The weakening remnants of Hurricane Idalia are forecast to continue moving northeastward near the southeast Atlantic coast through tonight (see latest NHC advisories for additional information). Flow will continue to veer and weaken across central/north FL and the tornado threat will likewise diminish through the afternoon. Farther north, more backed low-level flow and larger, curved hodographs (effective SRH 300-400 m2/s2) are expected in advance of Idalia's core across some of southeast GA and coastal SC this afternoon. Inland rainfall will reinforce a coastal baroclinic zone which will help focus the tornado threat near and just inland from the coast where surface-based buoyancy will be largest, as outer rain band supercells move inland. A similar environment and attendant tornado threat will spread northeastward across coastal NC late this afternoon through tonight. ....New England this afternoon... A pronounced midlevel trough will move over New England this afternoon along with an associated surface cold front. There will be a narrow zone of destabilization along the front, where weak bands of convection will be possible with a very low chance of wind damage given the moderately strong midlevel flow. However, will not add an outlook area since the window of opportunity will be small and confidence in storm development is relatively low. ....Eastern MT/western ND this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains, and this midlevel trough will be preceded by a surface trough/cold front. Some high-based convection could occur along the front in the limited-moisture environment, and this convection could produce gusty outflow winds. The chance for severe outflow winds appears relatively low, precluding the need for an outlook area. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .