Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2065
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 30 2023 15:03:12

ACUS11 KWNS 301503
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301502 COR
NCZ000-SCZ000-301645-

Mesoscale Discussion 2065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Areas affected...the South Carolina and adjacent North Carolina
coastal plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 301502Z - 301645Z

CORRECTED FOR LINK TO HURRICANE

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with a risk for producing
tornadoes appears likely to begin overspreading the South Carolina
coastal plain by 1-3 PM CDT.  A new Tornado Watch will likely be
issued within the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...The circulation center of Idalia is now well inland,
but maintains a north-northeastward migration around 15+ kt.  With
this continued motion, it should approach the Waycross GA vicinity
through 17-19Z, with a corridor of downstream near-surface warm
advection overspreading the South Carolina and adjacent North
Carolina coastal plain.  This likely will include a tropical moist
boundary layer continuing to spread inland with surface dew points
rising through the mid/upper 70s F.  Despite probable further
weakening of Idalia, downstream low-level shear will remain strong,
with RAP forecast soundings exhibiting enlarging clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs coincident with the moistening and
destabilizing boundary layer by the 17-19Z time frame.  This
environment will support continuing potential for convection with
embedded low-level mesocyclones with an attendant risk for
tornadoes.

...Kerr/Thompson.. 08/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9qy0sk-vYq4yFUFpNLCCmcInU8QFe9B24HoDSeM87P4j5Dh70gGqd7AVICaW9i35j89WT1OkB=
PrNZNGNeuYTFabVOc0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   32958109 33887993 33847806 33297824 32398014 32178072
            32958109=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.