Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 30 2023 09:22:19

AWUS01 KWNH 300922
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-301320-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1010
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
521 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern PA...Southeast NY...Northwest
NJ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300920Z - 301320Z

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for some flash flooding will continue
through the early morning hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a band of locally heavy showers
and thunderstorms advancing across areas of eastern PA and
south-central to southeast NY.

The downstream environment ahead of the convection is modestly
unstable with MLCAPE values of near 500+ J/kg, but there is some
relatively stronger upper jet forcing overhead which is connected
to the upper trough digging across the Great Lakes region and
approaching the Northeast. This larger scale forcing and degree of
remaining instability will work in tandem with a moist airmass to
continue to foster some heavy rainfall rate potential with the
stronger cells.

Expect this activity to continue to advance off to the
east-northeast over the next few hours and there may still be some
isolated concerns for flash flooding given the persistence of
rainfall rates locally reaching 1.5+ inches/hour and at least
briefly training over the same area.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!92WVmuYoW1jRBEWZrC9rUuky5wmsYPGBUzVECzujmBLpcM45gzEZpGMq9qx1SzJIFFxZ=
TlSLwQVA7uUWciqqABFl4lM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42457394 42067347 41157418 40427542 40387608=20
            40627629 41057597 41677542 42357455=20

=3D =3D =3D
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