Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 30 2023 08:47:58

ACUS48 KWNS 300847
SWOD48
SPC AC 300845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper trough/low over the western states should advance slowly
eastward towards the central Rockies this upcoming weekend. Weak
instability across these regions should generally limit the threat
for organized severe thunderstorms through Day 5/Sunday.
Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this
upper trough will eject northeastward across the northern/central
Plains early next week. Low-level moisture across this area should
initially be limited by a large area of surface high pressure over
the central/eastern CONUS. But, greater moisture return should
eventually occur ahead of a front around Day 7/Tuesday into Day
8/Wednesday from the lower/mid MS Valley into parts of the Upper
Midwest, OH Valley, and Great Lakes. If convection can develop
along/near this front, then some severe risk may exist around the
middle of next week. Still, there are substantial uncertainties
regarding the amplitude and timing of possible upper trough
progression across these areas at this extended time frame, which
limits predictability.

...Gleason.. 08/30/2023

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