Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2063
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 30 2023 08:24:36

ACUS11 KWNS 300824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300823=20
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-301030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Areas affected...the Florida Peninsula and portions of the eastern
Florida Panhandle...into southern Georgia...and eventually coastal
South Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 660...

Valid 300823Z - 301030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 660 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for isolated tornadoes will continue in association
with Hurricane Idalia.  A new WW will be required in the next hour
or so, to cover areas at risk to the north and northeast along and
east of Idalia's forecast track.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the well-defined eye of
Hurricane Idalia over the eastern Gulf, moving north-northeastward
at just over 20 kt.  The hurricane continues to intensify, and could
increase to a Category 4 hurricane prior to landfall, per latest
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.

Thus far, the most organized banding within the near-center,
northeastern quadrant of Idalia has remained offshore, with the
strongest onshore convection largely to the east and southeast of
the center, moving north/north-northeast across central portions of
the Florida Peninsula.  While occasional/weak/transient low-level
circulations will likely continue to evolve and then dissipate over
the next couple of hours, more favorable low-level shear -- and thus
greatest tornado risk -- is expected to evolve across northern
Florida this morning.  This risk will gradually expand northeastward
across the southeastern Georgia vicinity with time, and eventually
to coastal South Carolina, in tandem with Idalia's
north-northeastward advance.

Given the gradual northeastward expansion of risk with time, and the
pending 10Z expiration of Tornado Watch 660, a new tornado watch
will be issued in the next hour or so, to cover the
northeastward-expanding risk.

...Goss.. 08/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7Y_k6amFm3Q0Y61ENEf_5c2XThaW1PUHoG3BW7GcpIgUdGRp065uQSCYyiwydyvQaV_zRCvsm=
rQSq2CtX1MFtnOb-8I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   29138420 29778436 31978349 32748242 33357996 32497932
            28948042 27148113 26048187 26108333 27938335 29138420=20


=3D =3D =3D
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