Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Aug 30 2023 06:00:09 ACUS02 KWNS 300600 SWODY2 SPC AC 300558 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The tornado potential associated with Tropical Cyclone Idalia should become focused offshore the North Carolina Coast by late Thursday morning. Elsewhere, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ....Eastern North Carolina/Outer Banks... The most recent NHC forecast track for TC Idalia and latest guidance consensus generally shows that the center of circulation should be slightly offshore the SC/NC Coast at the start of the period Thursday morning. East-northeasterly low-level winds should be present over eastern NC and the Outer Banks after 12Z Thursday morning, with the low-level flow forecast to become less favorable with time for updraft rotation over land as TC Idalia continues moving generally eastward. Due to the limited forecast instability and less favorable shear anticipated as the low-level flow quickly backs to north-northeasterly, have not included low severe probabilities along the immediate coastal portions of NC and the southern Outer Banks after 12Z Thursday morning. ....Southwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should occur Thursday across parts of the central Rockies into the southern Great Basin and Southwest as an upper trough digs southward over the western states. While stronger instability should develop Thursday afternoon across parts of AZ into the lower CO River Valley where greater low-level moisture is present, modest deep-layer shear should generally temper the potential for organized severe thunderstorms across these areas. ....Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low should move slowly eastward across south-central Canada and the northern Plains through the day, with enhanced mid-level flow forecast to overspread much of the Dakotas. Limited/shallow low-level moisture ahead of a front is forecast to be insufficient to breach a substantial cap shown in various forecast soundings across this area, suggesting the overall severe threat should remain low. ...Gleason.. 08/30/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .