Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 30 2023 03:55:14

AWUS01 KWNH 300355
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-300853-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1007
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1153 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Central to Northeast PA and Far
Southern NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300353Z - 300853Z

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for some flash flooding may evolve
over the next few hours from locally training storms.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with dual-pol radar shows an uptick in convection across portions
of central PA and especially north of State College as an upper
trough crossing the Great Lakes region begins to provide somewhat
stronger upper support over the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

This energy is also coupling with an uptick in moisture
convergence near a quasi-stationary front over western PA along
with a nose of modest instability (MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000
J/kg) for an environment that is conducive for locally expanding
bands of convection. The airmass is very moist with PWs locally
near 1.75 inches across central PA and tapering off with northward
extent into far southern NY where they are closer to 1.25 inches.

Radar is showing some impressive rainfall rates with the current
activity north of State College, with rates locally exceeding 1.5
inches/hour. The 00Z HREF guidance shows the potential additional
southwest/northeast oriented bands of convection heading through
the night which may reach over into areas of northeast PA and far
southern NY with time. Some isolated 3 to 4 inch rainfall amounts
will be possible where these more focused areas of cell-training
occur.

Expect there to be at least an isolated threat for some flash
flooding given the very high rainfall rates and cell-training
concerns.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8wshE5uZK70B5wFlypxNoyX8qUfYnBgOqf63e_5hzoqwix0A7wE4GTPcCQv_QMgyuU80=
HNJJnMzdsgypJ9cY5ZirzW4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42237520 41557491 40837551 39957711 39877843=20
            40327878 41197784 42087650=20

=3D =3D =3D
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