Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 30 2023 00:58:33

ACUS01 KWNS 300058
SWODY1
SPC AC 300057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...

....SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will be possible tonight, mainly from the
west-central Florida Peninsula into the Big Bend area, within the
northeast quadrant of strengthening Hurricane Idalia.

....FL...
Hurricane Idalia will continue moving north-northeast tonight and be
located over the continental shelf waters near the Big Bend of FL by
early Wednesday morning.  The wind fields in the northeast quadrant
will continue to intensify this evening initially near the Tampa Bay
vicinity, and later spreading into the northern portion of the
Peninsula.  A few mini supercells are forecast to develop with an
attendant isolated risk for tornadoes.  A few damaging gusts may
also accompany the more outflow-dominant bands/convective surges
with the more intense spiral bands.  Have removed low-severe
probabilities over the Keys and the Everglades based on observed
wind fields (i.e., 00z Key West and Miami raobs and 88D VAD data)
being substantially weaker than farther north.

....Northern Rockies...
Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a vigorous mid-level
shortwave trough over the Columbia Basin with this feature forecast
to move northeast through the northern Rockies tonight.  Scattered
thunderstorms over western MT into northern ID will continue to move
northeast through the evening.  The 00z Great Falls, MT raob showed
dry adiabatic 0-4 km lapse rates and an inverted-v profile.  The
threat for isolated severe gusts will be the hazard with the
stronger storms through mid-late evening before convective
overturning and instability wanes.

...Smith.. 08/30/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.