Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 29 2023 17:08:04

AWUS01 KWNH 291707
FFGMPD
GAZ000-292115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1004
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
107 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Georgia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291705Z - 292115Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving/stationary thunderstorms becoming a bit more
organized and pose highly focused but intense rainfall resulting
in a few spots of possible flash flooding/rapid inundation over
the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms developed along the tail end of
an old outflow/surface convergence boundary at the coastline
around MacIntosh county, GA.   Mid to upper 70s Tds and confluent
onshore-flow support enhanced deep layer moisture at 2-2.25" of
total PWat values.  Low level inflow remains fairly strong but
also has expanded northward into south-east central GA with
broadening area of congested Cu and TCu expanding to a few more
thunderstorms across Jeff Davis county.  Sfc to boundary layer
weak southerly to south-southwesterly inflow is isentropically
lifting over the weak cold pool to maintain thunderstorm in/along
this instability axis noted along this boundary.  Additionally,
RAP analysis and RADAR velocity fields suggest weak organization
as effective bulk shear values are 25-30kts.  Given forecast
propagation is expected to be northeast and cold pool continues to
be reinforced to the south (expanding west-northwestward with new
development); effective cell motions are near zero or at 5kts.
Given upstream backbuilding along the isentropic upglide,
regeneration may support a few more hours of development.=20

Recent rates/totals across the area of 2-2.5"/hr with a favorable
narrow window over the next few hours suggests spots of 3-5" are
possible.  While this is falling across a broadly sandy soil that
can withstand these rates, the orientation of line with Altamaha
river system, may contribute to localized rapid inundation in
spots with spotty flooding considered possible over the next few
hours as cells sit and reform in the same general location.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4FXjtFDGpSRcxHmcuuI_b_TEuhpVjjK9U1nbfLyxl-yrxTTpIV33LP2gY7W3LnVw_-ei=
4uaoREJLJQAKavuApmyEa8g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32828244 32458213 31928168 31618123 31388117=20
            30908153 31168220 31658283 32088306 32728288=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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