Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 29 2023 11:24:29

AWUS01 KWNH 291124
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-291600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1002
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Areas affected...Northeast GA...Upstate SC...Western NC...Adj Far
Eastern TN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291130Z - 291600Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of slow moving thunderstorms crossing
rugged terrain resulting in possible flash flooding incidents.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and WV suite depict a mature MCV with
active but asymmetric convective cloud tops across the southeast
and eastern side of the wave.  The MCV continues to reside in a
favorable mid to upper level divergence pattern aloft to maintain
and perhaps intensify the circulation as it slides slowly
northward; however, the convective environment is eroding into
diurnal minimum as the atmosphere stabilizes a bit in early
morning hours.   RAP analysis shows a pocket of remaining uncapped
to weakly capped 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE along the southeast
upwind edge of the complex across northeast GA.

VWP in FFC/ATL and GSP support some 15-20kts of low-level flow
which is weakly convergent allowing for continued thunderstorm
activity across NE GA into Upstate SC and western NC.  The upglide
ascent supports some vertical development and given moisture
loading of near 2" (mostly in the lower environment) may still
support 1.5-2"/hr rates.  While flow is expected to become more
confluent and less convergent, the steering may allow for
south-southwest to north-northeast training elements across the
lower to mid slopes of the Southern Appalachian mountains.

FFG values are lower across the region, so spots of an additional
2-3" (very isolated 4") may result in a spot or two of flash
flooding through early morning hours, though much should be ending
by 16z, likely recharging for additional development again later
into the afternoon.


Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9nvlRxPMzsBnZpaFYyDN3Ps5RgEEKht6AmEwh97vPlv1dTkCHP4JVYHQEanZFmLMAZJa=
ggJeJz7m9PIKXPzDwru7BsY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36218244 35788183 35068193 34628228 34088313=20
            34088381 34498421 35208424 35698355=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.