Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 29 2023 06:02:31 ACUS02 KWNS 290602 SWODY2 SPC AC 290600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN/COASTAL GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... The threat for a few tornadoes associated with Tropical Cyclone Idalia will likely continue Wednesday across parts of north Florida, coastal/southeastern Georgia, and the eastern Carolinas. ....Florida into Georgia and the Carolinas... TC Idalia is forecast by the NHC to be located near the Big Bend region of FL at the start of the period Wednesday morning. This cyclone should continue to move northeastward across parts of north FL into southeastern GA, and eventually along/near the SC Coast by Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Very strong low-level flow will likely be present with TC Idalia given its forecast strength at the time of landfall, with some guidance showing 50-70+ kt at 850 mb across north FL Wednesday morning. Ample low-level shear and favorable hodograph curvature/0-1 km SRH will easily support rotating updrafts with any low-topped supercells that can develop in outer rain bands to the east/northeast of the center. Some uncertainty regarding sufficient instability remains, especially for more inland areas of north FL into southern GA. Still, the presence of mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints and strong low-level warm/moist advection should help compensate for nearly saturated/poor mid-level lapse rates. Even modest/filtered daytime heating should also encourage the development of weak instability across coastal/southeastern GA and eastern SC through the day. Based on the latest forecast track of TC Idalia, tornado potential should initially be focused over parts of north FL Wednesday morning where the best low-level shear and weak instability are expected to overlap. The greatest risk for a few tornadoes should gradually shift northeastward into coastal/southeastern GA and eastern SC Wednesday afternoon and evening as TC Idalia continues moving northeastward. There is still some uncertainty with how far inland the very moist low-level airmass will extend across these areas. Regardless, most high-resolution guidance shows multiple rain bands on the eastern periphery of TC Idalia impacting southeastern GA and eastern SC Wednesday afternoon/evening. Have expanded the Slight Risk inland a bit across these areas to account for this potential, while also including more of coastal NC in the Slight Risk for a continued tornado threat along/very near the coast and parts of the Outer Banks late Wednesday night through early Thursday morning. ....New England... An amplified upper trough will advance eastward across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and eastern Canada on Wednesday. Strong (50+ kt) mid-level flow is forecast to overspread much of New England through the day. Showers and thunderstorms should move quickly eastward across this region through Wednesday afternoon along or just ahead of a cold front. While isolated strong/gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, poor lapse rates and weak instability should temper the threat for severe wind gusts. ...Gleason.. 08/29/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .