Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 29 2023 05:53:26

AWUS01 KWNH 290553
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-291150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1001
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
152 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Areas affected...Northeast AL...Northern GA...Southeast
TN...Southwest NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 290550Z - 291150Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with locally
extremely heavy rainfall rates will pose concerns overnight for
areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery
shows a very well-defined MCV drifting very slowly into the
southern Appalachians. Recent radar imagery is beginning to show
some convective development around the southern flank of the MCV
over northern GA, especially to the northeast of Rome, and there
will be concerns over the next several hours for very slow-moving
bands or clusters of showers and thunderstorms in close proximity
to the MCV.

Some tightening of the mid-level vorticity coupled with an uptick
in low-level moisture convergence/forcing should work in tandem
with modest instability and localized orographics/upslope flow
near the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians for these
areas of convection to develop and locally expand in coverage.

Tall, skinny CAPE profiles reflective of MLCAPE values in the 500
to 1000 J/kg range, and PWs near or locally over 2 inches, will
yield extremely efficient rainfall processes for enhanced rates
that may approach or locally exceed 2.5 inches/hour.

The 00Z HREF guidance does suggest some uptick in the convective
threat in the near-term with some localized storm total potential
of 3 to 5 inches going through the remainder of the night toward
dawn.

Expect there to be a likelihood for at least scattered instances
of flash flooding given the high rainfall rate and storm total
potential.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9T6hCmM5kyYHt2jt3YJKGhVGj87YymDOoAqUg5tAZ2Veuo5KpWbpynf_0iJooG0EQv3f=
-KCYmiyavOxV0jAL3snCAeo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35898500 35778436 35548391 35258318 34728323=20
            34008441 33888583 34288630 35088591 35698570=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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