Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 29 2023 04:34:24 AWUS01 KWNH 290434 FFGMPD NCZ000-SCZ000-291030- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1000 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1232 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the Southern Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 290430Z - 291030Z SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms overnight may foster additional isolated concerns for runoff problems and flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The latest satellite imagery shows an MCV over northern GA that is drifting off to the northeast into adjacent areas of the southern Appalachians. This energy is also interacting with a quasi-stationary front draped over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic region. Several clusters of showers and thunderstorms are seen still percolating over areas of northwest SC and across NC to the north of this boundary, and this is being aided by persistence of modest instability with MLCAPE values of as much as 500 to 1000 J/kg. Some moisture convergence is also still noted along the boundary, with some of the stronger magnitudes of this situated across northwest SC and southwest NC in closer proximity to the MCV. PWs across the region are close to 2 inches, and the 00Z RAOB from GSO showed a tall, skinny CAPE profile that is quite conducive for warm rain processes. As a result, enhanced rainfall rate potential exists, and some of the additional storms going into the overnight hours will be capable of producing rainfall rates as high as 2.5 inches/hour. Cell-motions with the current activity are quite slow, and this will favor locally some excessive rainfall totals, with additional amounts overnight potentially reaching 3 to 4+ inches with the slower moving storms. Expect a threat for at least isolated instances of flash flooding overnight given the persistence of the convective threat near the front and ahead of the MCV near the southern Appalachians. This will include an urban flash flood threat as well including areas near the Charlotte area. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6AmSBmP-XCCstThBeuwvuH2DDqNdnTmiywgtptPy7txum5StN2t83lnnXMy5TXFPldim= tkKnZzM57Of6aWihZdPUwjA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36107644 35667639 35177775 34857941 34748174=20 34998288 35418332 35628295 35638222 35638046=20 35887833 36077703=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .