Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 29 2023 00:58:53

AWUS01 KWNH 290058
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-290655-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0999
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
858 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Areas affected...southeastern quadrant of NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290056Z - 290655Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of eastern and south-central NM. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will
be possible as an outflow boundary advances southward.

Discussion...0040Z regional radar and fading visible satellite
imagery showed numerous outflow boundaries tied to diurnally
driven monsoon convection over the eastern half of NM. However,
the most dominant of these outflows was located roughly west to
east, mostly south of I-40 from near ABQ to TCC, moving to the
south. Another outflow boundary was observed over from northern
Otero into western Lincoln County, moving north. Lingering MLCAPE
of ~500-1000 J/kg along with 1.2 to 1.6 inches PW (00Z EPZ and MAF
soundings along with SPC mesoanalysis data) will continue to
support thunderstorms into the early part of the night. As the
northern outflow boundary continues to drop southward over the
next few hours, RAP forecast guidance suggests that a modest
increase in upslope flow near 850 mb, out ahead of the outflow,
will act to increase low level lift across the region. In
addition, merging of other smaller scale outflow boundaries should
support the short term development of thunderstorms with 1-2 in/hr
rainfall rates before quickly dissipating or translating south,
supported by modest upper level diffluence on the east side of an
upper ridge centered over southern CA. An isolated flash flood
threat will exist as a result over the southeastern quadrant of
NM, with an expected focus near the eastern slopes of the
Sacramento mountains. Peak total rainfall is expected to average 1
to 2 inches, although a spot or two locally above 2 inches cannot
be ruled out.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5sYnEXKB8HhoEZu5POI3DiTXwkxCVf49E-Ot65vd_frcB_boQsQas7z3i2CD9jfEMRb2=
IEPSXRxRNBUnsI-NuZkk4cA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35630410 35520341 34830309 32690306 31840383=20
            31530445 31470544 31680625 32330701 33050712=20
            33470693 34170624 34700570 35180508=20

=3D =3D =3D
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