Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 28 2023 12:58:55 ACUS01 KWNS 281258 SWODY1 SPC AC 281257 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated storms capable of strong and gusty winds are possible across the Southeast today. ....Southeast States... Convective overturning from persistent storms since yesterday has modulated the warm sector, but some strong to severe thunderstorms will again be possible, mainly this afternoon, along and south of a southwest/northeast-oriented effective frontal zone. Such development will be aided by multiple MCVs that are evident/implied in water vapor imagery. With Precipitable Water values commonly near/above 2 inches, diurnally warming temperatures and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts/downdrafts. Strong gusty winds will be the primary severe concern. ....Florida... Idalia is expected to continue generally northward and intensify over the southeast Gulf of Mexico through tonight/early Tuesday. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details. While low-level winds/shear will begin to increase across the Florida Keys late tonight, it currently appears that Idalia will remain far enough west/southwest to preclude a meaningful risk for tornadoes through the Day 1 timeframe (ending 12z Tuesday). ....Northern Wisconsin/Upper Michigan... A few stronger low-topped storms could materialize late this afternoon/early evening with development near a weak surface wave/wind shift. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak and overall buoyancy will be limited to around 1000 J/kg, but steep low-level lapse rates/boundary layer mixing, in the presence of moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft, could yield some stronger wind gusts. ....Front Range and central/southern High Plains... Scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should again develop/increase through mid/late afternoon and continue through the evening. This will be aided by a modestly enhanced belt of northwesterly winds aloft. A few stronger storms will probably evolve, and possibly even some semi-organized clusters, especially across southeast Colorado/eastern New Mexico. Scenario currently appears somewhat limited/uncertain as far as regional severe probabilities, but this will be reexamined in subsequent outlooks. ...Guyer/Goss.. 08/28/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .