Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 28 2023 09:02:24

ACUS48 KWNS 280902
SWOD48
SPC AC 280900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

....DISCUSSION...
TC Idalia will probably be just offshore the Atlantic Coast by the
start of the period on Day 4/Thursday. Therefore, appreciable
tornado potential should generally remain off the NC/SC Coast.
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that upper ridging will
become reestablished over parts of the central/eastern CONUS late
this week into the upcoming weekend, while an upper trough/low
develops and moves slowly southward, then eastward across the
western states through Day 7/Sunday. While enhanced southwesterly
mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, minimal to weak
instability should temper the overall severe threat across the Great
Basin and Southwest through the weekend. There are some indications
that the upper trough over the western CONUS may eventually eject
northeastward across the Rockies and northern/central Plains by
early next week. Regardless, it still appears that low-level
moisture and instability should both remain too limited to support a
meaningful threat for organized severe thunderstorms across these
areas.

...Gleason.. 08/28/2023

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