Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 28 2023 07:29:52

ACUS03 KWNS 280729
SWODY3
SPC AC 280728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH FLORIDA...COASTAL/SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...

....SUMMARY...
The threat for a few tornadoes associated with Tropical Cyclone
Idalia should continue Wednesday across parts of north Florida,
coastal/southeastern Georgia, and the eastern Carolinas.

....Florida into Coastal/Southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas...
TC Idalia is forecast by the NHC to be located along/near the FL
Gulf Coast and north FL at the start of the period Wednesday
morning. Strong low-level flow and related shear will be present
over these regions as TC Idalia continues moving northeastward
along/near the Atlantic Coast. The threat for a few tornadoes should
persist across north FL Wednesday morning in a very strongly sheared
and weakly unstable environment. This tornado threat is forecast to
develop northeastward along/near the Atlantic Coast of southeastern
GA and eastern SC through Wednesday night.

There is still some uncertainty in the track of TC Idalia,
specifically whether the center of circulation will be slightly
inland, right along the coast, or slightly offshore. Even so, with a
rich and very moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints in the mid
to upper 70s) expected to advect inland, the potential for multiple
surface-based, low-topped supercells in outer rain bands to the
northeast/east of the center will probably exist along and near the
coast of GA/SC. Have therefore included a Slight Risk to account for
the threat of a few tornadoes. Less confidence exists for
surface-based convection across eastern NC, hence a Marginal Risk
across this area for now.

...Gleason.. 08/28/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.