Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 28 2023 02:46:19

AWUS01 KWNH 280245
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-280645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0992
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1045 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Southwest VA and Northwest NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280245Z - 280645Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall rates will pose a threat for at least isolated areas of
flash flooding heading into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows several small clusters of
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms across portions of southwest
VA and northwest NC in vicinity of an inverted surface trough.
This trough is yielding a north/south axis of relatively focused
moisture convergence which in conjunction with a nose of modest
instability and weak right-entrance upper jet dynamics may tend to
allow this convection to persist for a few more hours going
through midnight.

MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg are in place with PWs as high as
1.75 inches. Some of the cells are currently producing rainfall
rates up to 2+ inches/hour, and an early look at some of the 00Z
HREF guidance suggests that the slow movement of these cells over
the next few hours may result in some storm total amounts locally
of 3 to 5 inches.

Expect there to be sufficiently high enough rainfall rates and
storm totals going through 06Z (2AM EDT) for at least a threat for
some isolated instances of flash flooding. Given the fact that
there is some weak large scale ascent over the region, and a
low-level forcing mechanism for lift as well, it is possible that
some of this activity could potentially persist deeper into the
overnight time frame. Will continue to monitor.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-4nWRVvyzVDCZLje9pT9eEfeFEFDFhJCy4jUtTE2J_aCuilWVFGF1Kb_xjKMD5DfJ4L0=
ZcZ4d1ZMZj1n6FcyUSrki6w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38387958 38237920 37837922 37237923 36457907=20
            36187924 36107960 36028000 36098031 36478052=20
            37008043 37468030 38037996=20

=3D =3D =3D
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