Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 28 2023 01:37:58

AWUS01 KWNH 280137
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-280435-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0991
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
937 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Carolinas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280135Z - 280435Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms to continue over the
next few hours over portions of Carolinas including a threat for
additional areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows ongoing
clusters of very heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions
of the Carolinas. Very cold convective tops continue to evolve as
moderate instability pools along a quasi-stationary front across
the region with locally focused moisture convergence combining
with MLCAPE values of as much as 1500+ J/kg for broken areas of
convection.

Very high PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches are noted, and this coupled
with the instability will continue to favor rainfall rates with
some of the ongoing areas of convection as high as 2.5
inches/hour. There will be additional storms capable of producing
these rainfall rates with additional storm totals of as much as 3
to 4 inches for the next few hours which is supported by the 18Z
HREF guidance.

Some gradual waning of convection is expected toward late evening
as convective overturning continues, but the proximity of the
front and relatively broad area of moisture convergence and modest
right-entrance region upper jet dynamics will favor some localized
persistence of convection through the midnight time frame.

Some additional areas of flash flooding, including urban runoff
concerns, will be possible through the late evening time frame.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4Vz8F1eweGFNt1DZHliPwkoAk_FBLYer9h-sXb5tTHX7svvtGG_jJYmehbJvUnYQs0QH=
HQYNUYw6k9BsFK-8AGb6HqM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36087872 35247795 34117867 33457992 33208109=20
            33758204 34688199 35808060=20

=3D =3D =3D
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