Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 28 2023 00:47:21

ACUS01 KWNS 280047
SWODY1
SPC AC 280045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Gusty winds remain a threat this evening with convection from
southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

....01z Update...

Upper ridge has retrograded into the southwestern US early this
evening. With upper troughing over the northeastern part of the
CONUS, northwesterly flow has established itself from the northern
Plains into the lower MS Valley region. One notable short-wave
trough has topped the anticyclone and progressed into the TN Valley.
Subsequent movement will allow this feature to progress across the
southern Appalachians early in the day2 period. For the rest of
tonight, scattered convection, with some clustering, will likely
focus immediately downstream of the weak short wave, especially
across the Carolinas. Substantial convective overturning and
weakening buoyancy suggest this activity should remain mostly
sub-severe.

Farther west, surface front is advancing steadily south across TX
early this evening. Wind shift currently extends from just north of
SAT-north of IAH-south of SHV. A substantial amount of precipitation
has evolved over central TX and this should aid southward movement
of the boundary over the next few hours. Temperatures remain hot
with readings 100-104F immediately ahead of the wind shift. Gusty
winds could accompany this near-frontal convection until the
boundary layer cools later this evening.

...Darrow.. 08/28/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.