Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2057
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 27 2023 20:46:30

ACUS11 KWNS 272046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272045=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-272245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern MS and LA into far east TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 272045Z - 272245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms with isolated downburst winds are
possible this afternoon/early evening.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of the lower MS Valley and central Gulf
Coast, afternoon thunderstorms were observed developing along a
frontal boundary/remnant outflow. Strong diurnal heating has eroded
inhibition with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE supporting occasional
stronger updrafts. Deep-layer vertical shear across much of the
region is exceedingly weak at generally less than 10-15 kt. This
will support multi-cellular, pulse convection as the primary storm
mode. Weak surface flow is also not expected to support much cold
pool propagation and storm conglomeration seems unlikely. Thus, the
primary severe risk will be tied to individual pulse downdrafts as
storms collapse. Greater than 1000 J/kg of DCAPE and steep low-level
lapse rates from very warm temperatures may support stronger outflow
winds with sporadic damaging gusts. With little in the way of storm
organization or longevity expected, a WW appears very unlikely.

...Lyons/Thompson.. 08/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7awjHzfamdoqMEimM2GgQbPPKSJaL4cRyvTrZk3wM2bPHH6FM0zkqUH8RmwO0bMD7hZrpHU6K=
xgmVERnw8v6yxrbSsE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   30928898 31268945 31629039 31919184 32109304 32259432
            32229507 31889558 31469563 31109535 30429450 30209361
            29989193 29839020 30248937 30418909 30928898=20


=3D =3D =3D
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