Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 27 2023 19:42:17 ACUS01 KWNS 271942 SWODY1 SPC AC 271940 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds are possible mainly this afternoon and early evening spanning parts of Texas to the Carolinas. ....20Z Update... Overall forecast remains unchanged. Scattered thunderstorms will continue throughout the afternoon into this evening from central TX across the Southeast into the Carolinas. Vertical shear is weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample low-level moisture could still support isolated damaging wind gusts. Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop from southeast WY into eastern CO/NM. MLCAPE is generally 500 to 1000 J/kg amid 20 to 30 kt of effective bulk shear, contributing to the potential for a few storms capable of producing hail and/or damaging gusts. Coverage is still expected to be too low to introduce any wind/hail areas. ...Mosier.. 08/27/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023/ ....TX to the Carolinas this afternoon/early evening... A cold front will continue to sag slowly southward from central TX to the Ark-La-Miss and the Carolinas. The effective front is marked by outflow from northwest AL across central MS to northern LA, in association with an MCV that is moving south-southeastward over northwest MS. Away from ongoing convection/cloud debris, strong surface heating will drive MLCAPE values of 1500-3000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition, which will allow scattered thunderstorm development along the front and mesoscale boundaries/terrain circulations. Steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg will support the potential for isolated wind damage with downbursts, in an environment of weak vertical shear. ....Central/southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... Residual low-level moisture and weak upslope flow will support scattered thunderstorms this afternoon from southeast WY to eastern CO and eastern NM. Buoyancy will remain rather modest (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and there will be sufficient vertical shear for semi-organized storms with the potential for isolated strong gusts and some hail. However, the overall severe potential appears to be too low to warrant the addition of wind/hail outlook areas. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .