Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 27 2023 16:31:48

ACUS01 KWNS 271631
SWODY1
SPC AC 271630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM CENTRAL TX TO THE CAROLINAS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds are possible mainly
this afternoon and early evening spanning parts of Texas to the
Carolinas.

....TX to the Carolinas this afternoon/early evening...
A cold front will continue to sag slowly southward from central TX
to the Ark-La-Miss and the Carolinas.  The effective front is marked
by outflow from northwest AL across central MS to northern LA, in
association with an MCV that is moving south-southeastward over
northwest MS.  Away from ongoing convection/cloud debris, strong
surface heating will drive MLCAPE values of 1500-3000 J/kg with
minimal convective inhibition, which will allow scattered
thunderstorm development along the front and mesoscale
boundaries/terrain circulations.  Steep low-level lapse rates and
DCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg will support the potential for isolated wind
damage with downbursts, in an environment of weak vertical shear.

....Central/southern High Plains this afternoon/evening...
Residual low-level moisture and weak upslope flow will support
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon from southeast WY to eastern
CO and eastern NM.  Buoyancy will remain rather modest (MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg) and there will be sufficient vertical shear for
semi-organized storms with the potential for isolated strong gusts
and some hail.  However, the overall severe potential appears to be
too low to warrant the addition of wind/hail outlook areas.

...Thompson/Lyons.. 08/27/2023

$$

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