Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 27 2023 16:04:16

AWUS01 KWNH 271604
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-272200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0989
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1203 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Areas affected...southern KY into a large portion of TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271600Z - 272200Z

SUMMARY...At least a localized flash flood threat will continue
across portions of southern KY into portions of western to eastern
TN over the next few hours. Rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Satellite and regional radar imagery continued to
show a long-lived MCV over the western KY/TN border, drifting
toward the southeast. The environment ahead of this feature was
favorable for very heavy rain with precipitable water values of
1.8 to 2.3 inches (GPS data and 12Z BNA RAOB), sufficient MLCAPE
of 500 to over 1000 J/kg (15Z SPC mesoanalysis) and slow cell
motions near the center of the MCV.

Peak MRMS-derived rainfall rates have averaged 2-3 in/hr since
12Z, but recent trends in reflectivity along the west-central
KY/TN border have showed lowering intensity of echoes.
Nonetheless, favorable conditions are expected to persist ahead of
the MCV as it tracks slowly southeastward with tall/skinny CAPE
profiles in place out ahead. Occasional bursts in heavy rainfall
are likely from just ahead of the MCV to immediately downstream
into southern KY and Middle TN. Peak rainfall rates near the 2-3
in/hr range will be possible with additional localized totals over
4 inches not out of the question through 22Z.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7nQje_pSxzer__ch0hDArbv5Q9CmDOQCoBv2LjCjD79gWfxMGhXEfCInKNk1cRHwhsUU=
jLL-ELeJsWaosidQUwD53vs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37448518 37118439 36308454 35728485 35228538=20
            34928670 34868798 35238871 35928867 36568843=20
            37148779 37368681=20

=3D =3D =3D
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