Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 27 2023 12:42:46

ACUS01 KWNS 271242
SWODY1
SPC AC 271241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds are possible mainly
this afternoon and early evening across the Deep South spanning
parts of Texas to the Carolinas.

....Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast/Carolinas...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of wind damage will
be possible this afternoon across a broad region, within a very
moist/strongly unstable airmass to the south of a stalled or
slow-moving front. Weak west-northwesterly flow aloft will prevail
in proximity to the upper ridge, which will limit overall storm
organization, with pulse-type storms/some multicells prevalent.
However, somewhat more focused areas of potentially severe
convection may occur across the Tennessee Valley, related to the
southeastward persistence of a weak MCV located across the Mid-South
early this morning. Other intensifying storm development will be
prevalent this afternoon across the Carolinas in proximity to the
surface front.

....Texas/Louisiana...
Under the influence of modest-strength northwesterly winds aloft, a
southward-sagging front, and possibly zones of differential heating,
will influence an increase in deep convection this afternoon.
Temperatures within the warm sector should warm rapidly through the
90s into the lower 100s F. According, convective temperatures should
be breached by late afternoon and at least widely scattered
high-based thunderstorms should develop near/ahead of the front. The
thermodynamic environment will support locally strong to severe wind
gusts with the more robust storms through around sunset.

...Guyer/Goss.. 08/27/2023

$$

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