Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 27 2023 09:00:44

ACUS48 KWNS 270900
SWOD48
SPC AC 270858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

....DISCUSSION...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that a tropical cyclone
will continue moving northeastward across parts of north FL, GA, and
SC on Day 4/Wednesday. While details regarding the track and
intensity of this cyclone remain somewhat unclear, a large area of
enhanced low-level winds is expected to overspread these regions
Wednesday through Wednesday night. Even though some weakening is
forecast over land, elongated/curved low-level hodographs and strong
low-level shear should support some threat for isolated tornadoes.
Too much uncertainty regarding available instability and the track
of this tropical cyclone currently exists to include a 15% severe
area. But, at least low severe probabilities will likely be needed
in a future outlook across part of north FL into coastal GA/SC for
Wednesday.

The potential for organized severe thunderstorms appears generally
low across the CONUS from Day 5/Thursday through the end of the
forecast period. The tropical cyclone should reemerge over the
western Atlantic on Thursday, with appreciable severe potential
probably remaining offshore. Medium-range guidance is in generally
good agreement that upper ridging will become reestablished over the
central CONUS from Day 5/Thursday through next weekend, while an
upper trough/low develops along/near the West Coast.

...Gleason.. 08/27/2023

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