Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 26 2023 17:49:01

AWUS01 KWNH 261748
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-262345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0984
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
148 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Areas affected...NM into far eastern AZ and far southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261745Z - 262345Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered areas of flash flooding are
expected this afternoon into early evening for portions of NM into
far eastern AZ and far southern CO. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
are expected with slow moving storms.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery at 1720Z showed the early
onset of convective development across the higher terrain of the
southern Rockies into eastern portions of the Mogollon Rim in AZ.
Recent radar and visible satellite imagery showed a mesoscale
circulation over the northern Grant/Sierra county line, drifting
toward the north, with this feature possibly serving to enhance
diurnally driven thunderstorms along the higher terrain later
today. The region was located beneath the center of a large mid to
upper-level ridge with forecasts of weak steering flow (850-300 mb
mean layer winds <10 kt) over much of NM through 00Z. Deeper-layer
flow was expected to a bit stronger into CO by 00Z, at 10-15 kt
per recent RAP forecasts. The environment was also fairly moist
with precipitable water values on the 12Z ABQ sounding showing
1.22 inches, near the climatological max per the SPC sounding
climatology and representative of +1 to +2 standardized anomalies
for central NM.

Being located beneath the upper ridge, vertical shear is poor
which will keep cells disorganized but slow storm motions and
anomalous precipitable water values may promote a few areas of
flash flooding with rainfall rates between 1-2 in/hr, perhaps 1-2
inches in less than an hour for stronger cores. Beyond the initial
storm development along the higher terrain, subsequent convection
should follow outflow and local terrain interactions. The flash
flood coverage is expected to remain fairly localized with the
greatest impacts on area burn scars, creeks/low water crossings
and normally dry washes.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-Gxu431Nvb2wJFXA80vthZL6DP9BUpg9LbhADkRpy1XYheGeamdTa-3VxUSFHovbCcpX=
OAVHA-CiPgKepaar3QiweFo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38030709 38000640 37810618 37650609 37380606=20
            37290588 37310561 37720543 37540500 37160475=20
            36370467 35520470 34770471 34240492 33800512=20
            33220522 32720534 32550556 32780599 33140627=20
            33140657 32810717 32680813 32860899 33270963=20
            33970980 34620944 35380881 36000832 36890775=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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