Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 26 2023 12:59:41 ACUS01 KWNS 261259 SWODY1 SPC AC 261258 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH... ....SUMMARY... Strong to locally damaging winds may occur this afternoon and evening from southern Missouri and Arkansas across the Tennessee Valley toward the Carolinas. ....Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to Carolinas... A prominent upper ridge will shift from the southern Plains toward the Southwest, with multiple convectively induced/enhanced disturbances persisting across this region on its periphery. A more notable MCV is centered over northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri early this morning, with scattered convection preceding it across Missouri into southern Illinois near/north of a front (and convective outflows). Even as the upper ridge trends away from the region, warm summertime mid-level temperatures will persist, with capping-related uncertainties across the warm sector. However, sufficient forcing for ascent and subtly enhanced mid-level winds via the aforementioned MCV should influence an increase in convective coverage and intensity this afternoon as the boundary layer aggressively destabilizes especially across southern Missouri/far northern Arkansas into southern Illinois and western portions of Kentucky/Tennessee. Bouts of wind damage will be possible with the stronger multicell/pulse-type storms. Other more widely scattered pulse-type storms could occur across other parts of the Tennessee Valley/Carolinas this afternoon through early evening. ....Northeast States... Cool mid-level temperatures will spread across the region later today as a pronounced upper tough shifts into this part of the continent. Isolated-scattered convection will likely evolve beneath this feature, but forecast soundings are not particularly unstable. Small hail, and perhaps some gusty winds could be noted with a few storms but the severe threat currently appears too low to warrant severe probabilities. ....Pacific Northwest... Gusty winds may accompany weak convection across parts of interior Oregon where steep lapse rates are expected. However, this activity will remain quite sparse and buoyancy should be a bit too weak to warrant a meaningful risk of 50+ kt convective wind gusts. ...Guyer/Goss.. 08/26/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .