Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 26 2023 12:58:23

AWUS01 KWNH 261258
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-261700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0983
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Areas affected...central MO into southwestern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261256Z - 261700Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of central MO into southwestern IL over the next few
hours. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr can be expected within areas of
training/merging of cells.

DISCUSSION...1230Z satellite and radar imagery placed a well
defined MCV over northeastern KS, tracking toward the east.
Downstream from this feature was a broken axis of thunderstorms
extending from north-central MO, southeastward across the MS River
(between UIN and STL) into portions of the Lower OH Valley.
Instability was estimated to be 500-1500 J/kg within this region
of convection with low level warm advection and convergence near
800-700 mb helping to focus activity. Flow aloft was also fairly
diffluent around an upper ridge centered along the southern KS/MO
border.

Steering flow from the W to WNW will continue to allow for short
term training of cells along the elevated convergence axis from
portions of north-central MO into southwestern IL over the next
few hours. Additional development will be possible for locations
to the immediate south in central MO as the MCV tracks closer,
working with the available instability and elevated precipitable
water values which ranged from ~1.9 to 2.0+ inches (per 12Z
soundings from SGF, TOP and ILX. While coverage of higher rainfall
totals may not too large, a couple of instances of flash flooding
appear possible over the next 3-4 hours with rainfall rates of 1-2
in/hr and localized totals up to ~4 inches through 17Z.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6NZzbgSvcSofGuMhxeSHSpyFjcUEfLWkiS5zQqJSroQlLsbcobYqBf882fzYEKV3c1tM=
8ZBIHz_CLR602eXk8C1nIiU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40059197 39549025 38828885 37788863 37158911=20
            37049004 37159121 37449297 38069398 38789421=20
            39849354=20

=3D =3D =3D
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