Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 26 2023 08:54:09

ACUS48 KWNS 260854
SWOD48
SPC AC 260852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper trough should advance eastward across the Northwest and
northern Rockies on Day 4/Tuesday. Enhanced mid-level winds and
associated deep-layer shear should provide some updraft organization
to thunderstorms that can form across interior portions of the
Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, mainly Tuesday
afternoon and evening. While low-level moisture and instability
appear a bit too limited to support inclusion of a 15% severe area
at this time, at least low severe probabilities may be needed in a
future outlook across parts of this area if current model trends
continue.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a high likelihood of
tropical cyclone development by early next week across the
northwestern Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Latest guidance
continues to show some variability in the location and intensity of
this forecast tropical cyclone. Still, it appears increasingly
probable that strong low-level winds/shear will impact parts of FL
and possibly coastal GA/SC, perhaps beginning as early as Tuesday
night, and continuing through Day 5/Wednesday. The development of
sufficient instability to support low-topped supercells in outer
rain bands remains quite uncertain across these areas. Even so, some
potential for tornadoes associated with this forecast tropical
cyclone will probably warrant low severe probabilities in later
outlooks for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

...Gleason.. 08/26/2023

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