Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 26 2023 08:24:53

FOUS30 KWBC 260824
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Aug 26 2023 - 12Z Sun Aug 27 2023

....A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AS WELL
THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

Maintained a corridor of a Marginal risk area across parts of
Missouri east/southeastward across portions of the Tennessee
Valley/lower Ohio Valley..with on-going moderate to heavy rainfall
being on-going at the start of the outlook period followed by
additional elevated convection forming along/near a
quasi-stationary front in a region of weak upper level
height/thickness diffluence between the contracting deep-layer
ridge and digging upper trough.  There still looks to be some
enhanced forcing within the right-entrance region of a 70-90kt
upper level jet streak traversing the Great Lakes region.
Spaghetti plots from the SREF and GEFS still not showing much
overlap of 1 or 2 inch contours with each other...although the
HREF was beginning to show some clustering of 40 km neighborhood
probabilities of 1 inch per hour from the Mid-Mississippi Valley
into the Tennessee Valley by later this morning and probabilities
of 2 inches of rain in an hours develop by afternoon,  The signals
are not that strong...generally 15 per cent or less.  The overall
threat for heavy rainfall gradually shifts eastward into the east
end of the Tennessee Valley by late tonight.  Made a few
adjustments to the previously issued Marginal.=20


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6iBiftkBamaDiN0sAncxE56bd6OU7weJEerCkZC8sz8T=
XAyZp-EuHLpklOGqTG_K99ZqblOzOcJIIBoiq00-giQ6wIg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6iBiftkBamaDiN0sAncxE56bd6OU7weJEerCkZC8sz8T=
XAyZp-EuHLpklOGqTG_K99ZqblOzOcJIIBoiq00-OL93i7c$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6iBiftkBamaDiN0sAncxE56bd6OU7weJEerCkZC8sz8T=
XAyZp-EuHLpklOGqTG_K99ZqblOzOcJIIBoiq00-gDGkHMU$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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