Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2053
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 26 2023 05:54:37

ACUS11 KWNS 260554
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260553=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-260830-

Mesoscale Discussion 2053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Illinois...far southern Indiana...and
into adjacent portions of Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 260553Z - 260830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms within an MCS will continue spreading
southeastward, with occasional/local potential for marginal
hail/wind.  However, a gradual downward trend in convective
intensity is expected, likely mitigating any consideration for new
WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a bowing MCS moving
southeastward across southern Indiana, and parts of adjacent
southeastern Illinois, at this time.  While earlier severe weather
was associated with this convection, risk has diminished -- and
should continue to do so given a much more stable downstream airmass
into central Kentucky per RAP-based objective analysis.

The greatest risk for continuation of vigorous convection, and
possible/occasional/local severe-weather occurrences, will be along
the western flank of this convection, across southeastern Illinois,
southwestern Indiana, and later into parts of western Kentucky,
along/within the gradient of instability to the southwest of the
ongoing storms.  While this local risk may continue for several
hours, magnitude of the expected risk argues against any need for
future WW consideration.

...Goss/Guyer.. 08/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6T3_OHbBVUUfWOQ2VqN6dC2XDD0xEFDvFGdbaowYSxxTLZVPidEeUxh6YIx7ICfp0282c3GsA=
5o_6ctCcnwniyXazF8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   39088604 38908527 38038543 37458614 37188770 38098871
            39028831 39068805 38468701 39088604=20


=3D =3D =3D
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