Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2052
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 26 2023 05:41:40

ACUS11 KWNS 260541
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260541=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260815-

Mesoscale Discussion 2052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Areas affected...far southeastern Nebraska...northeastern
Kansas...far southern Iowa...and northern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 260541Z - 260815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong thunderstorms within a complex ongoing over
southeastern Nebraska/northeastern Kansas will likely continue
overnight, spreading eastward with time and possibly accompanied by
local/isolated/occasional severe-weather occurrences.=20
Isolated/local nature of the risk should preclude serious WW
consideration.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar composite shows vigorous storms -- within
a broader mesoscale system -- moving across southeastern
Nebraska/northeastern Kansas, in tandem with an eastward-moving
mesolow near the southeastern Nebraska/northeastern Kansas border.=20
The storms are ongoing just north of a west-to-east surface frontal
zone, where a very moist boundary layer and associated axis of
moderate mixed-layer CAPE (1500 to 2500 J/kg exists).

With the instability axis extending eastward across northern
Missouri to central Illinois, and presence of low-level ascent near
the frontal zone, it appears likely that the organized system will
be sustained as it moves eastward with time.=20=20

Despite more than ample thermodynamic support, severe threat should
overall remain hindered by very modest deep-layer west-northwesterly
flow through the lower and middle troposphere.  A very slightly
boundary layer near -- and especially to the cool side -- of the
surface front should also curtail more widespread/organized
damaging-wind risk.  Still, local potential for marginal hail, and
an occasional strong gust near severe levels, will be possible over
the next several hours.  At this time, barring
substantial/unanticipated organization of the convection linearly,
WW issuance will remain unlikely given the expected
isolated/sporadic nature of the risk.

...Goss/Guyer.. 08/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5ctdgC7C7wIXJnxZEQ35dGY95dJQ1uzAqKYIhjD7ZdTnfxMFTnDGdGpK3soDzlXCAElGQD44H=
jdh2iHlfF_cK8ifaj0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39499678 40199631 40519553 40619376 40439228 40259019
            38999004 38689101 39099444 39169674 39499678=20


=3D =3D =3D
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