Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 26 2023 03:51:46

AWUS01 KWNH 260351
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-260850-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0981
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1151 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Areas affected...East-Central IL...Central/Southern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260350Z - 260850Z

SUMMARY...Locally training bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms heading into the overnight hours may cause some
localized areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
gradually expanding cold topped convective cluster over
east-central IL that is advancing off to the east-southeast with
radar imagery showing some additional storms forming out ahead of
it over west-central IN. The convection is situated near and just
north of a quasi-stationary front and appears to be getting some
support from a weak vort impulse aloft and an associated surface
low that is riding along this boundary.

A very moist and unstable airmass is pooled along the front with
MLCAPE values of as much as 2000 to 3000 J/kg and PWs of 1.75 to 2
inches. There is some moderate effective bulk shear in place, and
this appears to be favoring at least some smaller scale
organization of the convection which is gradually taking on the
form of an MCS.

There may be at least some training convective cell potential
across areas of especially west-central to south-central IN over
the next several hours as this convection advances off to the
east-southeast in close proximity to the front.

Some rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour will be possible with
some spotty storm amounts of 3 to 4 inches where cells tend to
train over the same area. Some localized areas of flash flooding
will be possible as a result.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6b3kf1419wQoN8sVHnxs1heJyycp0zmuh8DV5xX3Q1IVdr6znTNYIIzf344aGJFIepOV=
eLXJHL7m3ndrz2ARL54fJxg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40038822 39858699 39588571 39248494 38708519=20
            38628617 38888743 39278871 39658938 40018919=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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