Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 25 2023 23:25:13

AWUS01 KWNH 252325
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-260323-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0980
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
724 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252323Z - 260323Z

Summary...Flash flooding remains possible - especially with any
backbuilding and training on the western flank of an MCS making
southward progress across the discussion area.

Discussion...Over the past few hours, backbuilding convection on
the western flank of an MCS has resulted in several areas of
enhanced rainfall rates (locally exceeding 2 inches/hr at times)
along with 3-5 inch totals since 17Z.  Areas of moderate MRMS
responses suggest that local impacts have occurred in/near the
areas of heavier rainfall as well.

Convective trends over the past hour suggest that these same
heavier rainfall rates are gradually becoming more isolated with
time.  The western flank of the MCS (that had exhibited
backbuilding and training to contribute to the higher rates) has
now evolved into more of a forward propagating complex as a
maturing cold pool has began to surge south-southwestward, with
only a limited degree of cell mergers/training now apparent very
near the Louisville Metro area.   Peak rainfall rates are now in
the 1-1.5 inch/hr range, which fall shy of the ~2 inch/hr FFG
thresholds noted across the area.  As such, the flash flood risk
is a bit more marginal/isolated compared to earlier, with the
greatest potential existing where either 1) sensitive/urban ground
conditions exist or 2) where cell mergers can locally enhance rain
rates.

The temporal extent of flash flood potential will likely be tied
to persistence of the ongoing MCS through the evening, with the
most recent runs of the HRRR suggesting weakening beginning after
02Z or so.  The MCS should also reach the Kentucky/Tennessee
border region through 03Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9sfIgUc5oCVJ1LUJkfmIfm70zp64DFhBk4zMJMdiEGu60TP9Q38BeXItpeU5NjsADpDW=
vZhh8OhPp7ufrck0tjxdV-U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38758586 38588453 38008309 36978298 36508442=20
            36798631 37648637=20

=3D =3D =3D
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