Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 25 2023 21:43:40

AWUS01 KWNH 252143
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-260342-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0979
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Areas affected...central through southeastern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 252142Z - 260342Z

Summary...Storms within an upslope flow regime will produce
locally heavy rainfall, with rates exceeding 1.5 inches/hr at
times.  Flash flooding is likely through 03-04Z.

Discussion...Deep, slow-moving thunderstorm activity was
developing in earnest along the higher terrain along and west of
I-25 between Colorado Spring, Pueblo, and the New Mexico border
area over the past hour.  The storms are being supported by an
upslope component to low-level flow across the region in addition
to areas of 1000 J/kg SBCAPE near the region of storm initiation.
Wind fields are fairly modest through the troposphere, which was
allowing for slow storm motions and spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain
rates to materialize between the more persistent thunderstorms.=20
These rates were approaching 1-hour FFG thresholds in the 1.5
inch/hr range (locally lower), which should result in at least
isolated flash flood potential in the near term (through 23Z or
so).

With time, models/CAMs indicate eastward development of
thunderstorms through the remainder of the discussion area (as far
east as the CO/KS border area) through 03Z or so.  As this occurs,
wind fields aloft will continue to support slow storm motions
while moisture/instability profiles support continued local rain
rates as high as 2 inches/hr at times.  As storms spread eastward,
flash flood potential is likely in at least a few spots -
particularly in/near vulnerable and sensitive ground conditions.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!49xIyoJVuWiURFwihb5rv_rr3pwFkGYv3CejIqWEByNKYGg0Xkmum7JugTHtgeYGGKxj=
UmLDCmbPLlpuLe-hzX4FIGU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39460509 39280337 39290230 38500190 37210195=20
            36680285 37050589 38330626 39130600=20

=3D =3D =3D
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