Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2047
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 25 2023 20:26:38

ACUS11 KWNS 252026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252025=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-252230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southern IL/IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252025Z - 252230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible later this afternoon
into the evening, with a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps
some hail.

DISCUSSION...A strong thunderstorm has recently developed across
south-central IL, with an increasing cumulus field noted farther
east along a surface boundary into southeast IL and southern IN.
Strong to extreme buoyancy has developed within a very hot/moist
environment, with MLCAPE in the 3000-4500 J/kg range per recent
mesoanalyses and also noted regionally on the 18 UTC ILN sounding.
While deep-layer shear is rather weak (with effective shear
generally less than 25 kt), the favorable buoyancy will support a
threat of isolated hail and localized downbursts with any sustained
development through the afternoon. Storm coverage through the
afternoon remains somewhat uncertain, with generally limited
large-scale ascent and weak convergence along the boundary. With the
threat expected to remain somewhat isolated, watch issuance in the
short-term is considered unlikely.

...Dean/Thompson.. 08/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5hmvMo8BlrTNS_iNREvlQXIlPiI6u7PkFDInIxZTgN1VYcvPXJ6W5i46YplJ3gGpme-UGLtTt=
kG2oXAHRy2wFYWW-No$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39808935 39378766 39558605 39338490 38848482 38178595
            38078740 38458936 38918970 39128986 39808935=20


=3D =3D =3D
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