Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2046
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 25 2023 18:33:04

ACUS11 KWNS 251832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251832=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-252030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Areas affected...northern Wisconsin...western half of the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251832Z - 252030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail (diameters 1 to 1.5 inches) and
damaging gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger storms
this afternoon.  The isolated coverage of expected severe
thunderstorm activity will preclude the need for a small severe
thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a couple of storms from
far northern WI east into the western part of the U.P. of MI ahead
of a mid-level shortwave trough.  Sunny skies continue to promote
heating downstream of the ongoing convection, and temperatures are
warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s deg F.=20=20

Objective analysis indicates around 500 J/kg MLCAPE over northern WI
and adjacent MI.  As the boundary layer continues to warm and
destabilize through mid afternoon, MLCAPE is forecast to range from
500-1000 J/kg over the region.  Effective shear magnitudes 40-45 kt
will act to organize updrafts.  The more intense updrafts will be
capable of an isolated severe threat.  A couple of weak supercells
and multicells are possible with the severe threat associated solely
with these storm modes.

...Smith/Thompson.. 08/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9ElBKdL7SCbA42mE5O5gdRCDp8w_KFMS3Dd5Ffv-woLHKbAdTRh8WN9-n-KAkM4N0j6dmSaVY=
-7kllXpDfGTDhG-PrM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

LAT...LON   46659114 46818976 46578747 46278686 45898675 45648701
            45518740 45979120 46159151 46389151 46659114=20


=3D =3D =3D
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