Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 25 2023 18:14:40

AWUS01 KWNH 251814
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-260002-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0976
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Areas affected...much of New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251802Z - 260002Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity continues to
drift slowly northward while gradually expanding in coverage
across New Mexico.  A few areas of flash flooding are possible
with this activity.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite mosaic imagery depicts
deepening convection especially across central New Mexico, with
areas of new development along ridgelines from western into
northern portions of the state.  The storms are in an
destabilizing environment, with weak to moderate instability=20
(500-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) focused especially across central portions
of the state.  PW values of 1-1.2 inch were also focused across
central portions of the state.  Meanwhile, very weak southerly
flow aloft was contributing to very slow northerly storm motions
(0-10 knots) that were allowing for storms to produce localized 1+
inch/hr rain amounts.  In fact, recent MRMS estimates peaked at
around 2+ inches/hr about 45 miles southeast of Albuquerque,
suggesting potential for local FFG to be exceeded in at least a
few spots.

The ongoing flash flood scenario should be primarily tied to
diurnally driven thunderstorm activity through the early evening.
This risk should especially become apparent if rainfall can
materialize across sensitive ground conditions and/or burn scars.
Storms should persist through the 00-02Z timeframe before
weakening thereafter.  Additional areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates
are expected, but should occur on mainly an isolated basis.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_WbY_70yE4MTJyWh4tcwkOlyso3jzPKX6pSzAfjjwke1kYYzfe-2Cw_AjmPJ-MjypaS5=
Y6BKECBNJMA6nOVZ2okRUeM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37000616 36990471 36710367 35840371 35150446=20
            34340472 32960502 32640567 33150657 33100708=20
            32610802 33080898 34640885 35400869 36760730=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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