Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 25 2023 17:23:05

ACUS02 KWNS 251722
SWODY2
SPC AC 251721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM THE
OZARKS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur Saturday roughly from
southern Missouri and Arkansas across the Tennessee Valley and
toward the Carolinas. Small hail will be possible over parts of New
England.

....Ozark Region eastward across the TN Valley...
An upper high will remain centered over parts of the southern High
Plains, with generally weak winds aloft over most areas. Meager
northwest flow aloft across the OH/TN Valley will not result in
appreciable shear, but could at least guide storms in a
southeasterly direction as they develop near a weak surface trough
from KY into TN. Potential outflow boundaries may provide a focus
for development as well, while ample instability with tall CAPE
profiles support localized damaging outflow.

Farther west, instability will remain strong from parts of MO into
AR, and scattered storms are likely to develop during the afternoon
near a stalled front. Isolated development may occur into parts of
eastern OK as well. Strong heating with deeply mixed low levels will
favor strong downbursts with some of the storms during the
afternoon.

....Northeast...
Cool air aloft beneath an upper trough along with weak convergence
within a moist air mass may lead to a few daytime thunderstorms near
eastern MA, with other sporadic convection farther north where lapse
rates will be steeper over northern NY/VT. Weakening and veering of
the low-level winds will generally result in weak effective shear,
although winds higher up will be stronger. Cool air aloft could
result in small hail in some of the cells, but the overall threat of
hail reaching severe criteria appears low.

...Jewell.. 08/25/2023

$$

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