Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 25 2023 05:55:33

ACUS02 KWNS 250555
SWODY2
SPC AC 250554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur Saturday across parts of
the Southeast.

....Synopsis...
An upper-level anticyclone centered over the southern Plains should
retrograde slightly westward in tandem with a prominent upper ridge
on Saturday. Upper troughing over eastern Canada and the Northeast
is forecast to move only slowly eastward through the period. At the
surface, a weak front should extend southwestward from a low over
New England across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, and westward into the
southern/central Plains. A very moist low-level airmass, with at
least low to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should exist in a fairly
narrow corridor along/south of this front across parts of the
Mid-South/TN Valley and into the Carolinas.

....Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South into the Tennessee Valley and
Carolinas...
Low-level convergence along the weak front should remain rather
modest, and better large-scale ascent associated with the upper
trough will likely stay displaced to the north of this region.
Still, daytime heating of the very moist low-level airmass will aid
in the development of moderate to perhaps very strong instability by
Saturday afternoon, along with steepened low-level lapse rates.
Ample DCAPE should also be present, which will aid in efficient
downdraft momentum with any thunderstorms that can develop along and
south of the front. Even though mid-level flow and related
deep-layer shear is expected to remain quite weak, there may still
be some modest convective organization along/near the front as this
activity spreads slowly south-southeastward through early Saturday
evening. Given the very favorable thermodynamic environment,
occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust
cores. A Marginal Risk has been added across parts of the lower MS
Valley/Mid-South into the TN Valley and Carolinas where the best
signal exists for scattered thunderstorms.

...Gleason.. 08/25/2023

$$

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