Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2039 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 24 2023 20:44:59 ACUS11 KWNS 242044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242044=20 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-242315- Mesoscale Discussion 2039 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 Areas affected...Southern Lower MI...Northeast IN...Northwest OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20 Valid 242044Z - 242315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Potential for severe thunderstorms will increase throughout the afternoon and into the evening across Lower MI and adjacent portions of northeast IN and northwest OH. All severe hazards are possible, including significant wind gusts and tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown significant erosion of the stratus across southwest Lower MI as the differential heating zone becomes an effective warm front amid strong southwesterly surface winds. Dewpoints are now in the upper 70s with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s across southwest Lower MI. Temperatures are still in the upper 70s/low 80s farther north and east, with lower dewpoints there as well. Even with the more moist and warmer conditions, some convective inhibition currently still remains across southwest Lower MI, evidenced by the billow clouds on visible imagery. Additional heating, coupled with low-level moisture convergence over the region, may be able to overcome this convective inhibition, promoting warm-sector thunderstorm development. There is some uncertainty regarding this scenario, but any warm-sector storms that do form would likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes.=20 Even if warm-sector development is not realized, additional forcing for ascent attendant to subtle vorticity maximum should spread across the area this evening. This forcing for ascent is just now reaching southern WI and is responsible for the developing storms in that region now. Expectation is that any storms ongoing ahead of this vorticity max will intensify as they enter southern Lower MI, with some in-situ development possible as well. Upscale growth appears probable, with the resultant convective line then progressing eastward/southeastward. Damaging gusts would be the main severe threat, but hail and a tornado or two are possible as well. It is feasible that a robust rear-inflow jet develops, resulting in the potential for significant wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes. ...Mosier/Grams.. 08/24/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8oT9NIc9_yb4BIRN76OaMLU2tUkQCu0swbaD0SfmWC_igl7WsrAwAyj91Cw3vfufKCtoUB9qG= 1kB2emPcMQGySt6SbQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42078654 42608634 43468614 43528482 42568330 41838318 41338381 41448535 41808627 42078654=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .