Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 24 2023 17:25:58 ACUS02 KWNS 241725 SWODY2 SPC AC 241724 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND VIRGINIA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the Mid Atlantic and lower Ohio Valley through the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains Friday afternoon into Friday night, accompanied by a risk of damaging wind gusts and sporadic marginal hail. ....MO/IL eastward toward VA... Strong instability will develop from the lower MS Valley across the OH Valley on Friday, with a weak front/surface trough extending from PA into IL. This area will exist beneath generally weak northwest flow aloft from MO/IL into the OH Valley, with midlevel winds on the order of 20-30 kt from OH into PA by 00Z. A dying MCS with cooling outflow will likely affect parts of WV, eastern KY and VA early in the day, but westerly winds around 850 mb will likely result in destabilization later. Otherwise, strong heating to the west and weak convergence should yield scattered storms along the length of the front, and perhaps in association with the earlier outflow which will affect KY during the afternoon. Any of these diurnal storms will have locally damaging gust potential given MLCAPE over 2000-3000 J/kg, with little organization due to weak winds aloft. However, the evolution of the early day MCS will need to be monitored, and a small corridor of higher probabilities for wind could be added in subsequent outlooks depending on trends. ....Central Plains to IL... Afternoon storms will be likely from CO eastward across southern NE/northern KS and into parts of IA near the stalled boundary. Strong heating and hot temperatures will aid development despite modest instability levels, with cooler yet still moist upslope flow over CO. Generally small to marginally severe hail will be possible as well as directional shear with height aids cellular storm mode. Stronger flow aloft on the southwest fringe of the Great Lakes upper trough may aid isolated hail potential as well from IA into IL due to slightly better shear. ...Jewell.. 08/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .