Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 24 2023 08:34:58

ACUS48 KWNS 240834
SWOD48
SPC AC 240833

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

....DISCUSSION...
For late this coming weekend through early next week, the latest
medium-range output appears increasingly suggestive that mid-level
troughing will consolidate east-southeast of the Canadian Prairies
and dig through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, as an upstream
mid-level low, initially offshore of the Pacific coast, is forced
inland across the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain
region.  In association with the lead wave, a reinforcing intrusion
of cooler/drier air may reach the middle into southern Atlantic
Seaboard and Gulf coast vicinity by late Tuesday night.  While it
does appear at least possible that monsoonal moisture could
contribute to instability supportive of some severe thunderstorm
potential into and across the northern Rockies, in association with
the trailing perturbation, the initial lack of more substantive
boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies appears likely to limit
the convective potential eastward across the northern Great Plains
next Wednesday into Thursday.

Otherwise, the risk for severe weather across the middle into
northern Atlantic Seaboard, ahead of the cold front associated with
the lead mid-level trough, also appears limited next Tuesday, as one
significant tropical cyclone likely begins to accelerate
northeastward offshore of coastal areas.  However, potential
tropical developments across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and perhaps
Florida Peninsula, will need to be monitored.

...Kerr.. 08/24/2023

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