Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 24 2023 07:02:55

ACUS03 KWNS 240702
SWODY3
SPC AC 240702

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears low across the U.S.,
Saturday through Saturday night.

....Discussion...
A significant mid-level low likely will remain cut off from the
westerlies, offshore of the Pacific coast Saturday through Saturday
night.  Models suggest that it may slowly drift west, as broad
ridging within the westerlies to its north builds across the
northeastern Pacific through western Canada, and a still fairly
prominent downstream ridge remains entrenched across much of the
interior West and Rockies into the Southeast.  In association with
the latter feature, the center of highest mid-level heights is
forecast to shift from the Texas Panhandle vicinity through the
southern Rockies, while the northeastern periphery of the ridge
becomes a bit further suppressed across the northern Great Plains
into the Mid Atlantic.  Broad mid-level troughing may continue to
evolve across the Great Lakes region through the northern Atlantic
Seaboard, with one significant embedded perturbation gradually
pivoting northeast of New England, while another digs across the St.
Lawrence Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity.

In lower levels, a conglomerate surface cold front may make further
progress southward to the lee of the southern Rockies, and through
the Ozark Plateau/Tennessee Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
vicinity.  Seasonably moist air along it may contribute to
appreciable mixed-layer CAPE (but perhaps more modest than Friday)
with daytime heating, but this will remain confined beneath
relatively warm air in mid/upper levels and within generally weak
shear to the south of the westerlies.  This destabilization may
become supportive of scattered vigorous thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening, some of which could become capable of
producing strong surface gusts.  However, it is not currently clear
that the coverage of any such activity will support 5 percent or
greater severe probabilities.

...Kerr.. 08/24/2023

$$

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