Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 24 2023 05:52:03 AWUS01 KWNH 240551 FFGMPD OHZ000-MIZ000-241100- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0969 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 150 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 Areas affected...Southeast MI...Northwest to Central OH Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 240550Z - 241100Z SUMMARY...New thunderstorms forming over southeast MI will track into northwest to central OH going through the early morning hours. Flash flooding is likely and especially over northwest OH where some of the flash flooding is expected to be severe and life-threatening. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows new areas of thunderstorms developing near a stationary front across southeast MI and close to an area of low pressure. This new convection is focusing along a very strong instability gradient and area of enhanced moisture convergence within an environment that is also conducive for backbuilding and training convective cells. MLCAPE values are extremely high over southeast MO and down across western OH with values that are locally as high 4000 to 5000 J/kg and reflective of just hot, moist and unstable the airmass is west and south of the aforementioned stationary front. On the cool side of the front, training bands of convection are continuing to reinforce the larger scale cold pool that has enveloped much of eastern OH. However, the convection which has been edging farther west into areas of northwest OH continues to train over the same area and the new rounds of convection developing over southeast MI are likely to drop down across the far western end of Lake Erie and continue to impact northwest OH with an emphasis on Ottawa, Sandusky and Seneca counties. Erie and Huron counties just to the east are seeing at least some break in the activity, but new convection over western Lake Erie off to the north may cross the lake and drop back down over these areas within the next 2 to 3 hours. It is possible that the slowly westward advancing outflow boundary with the convection may shift the core of the training convective bands at least into the eastern suburbs of both Toledo and Findlay, and this will need to be closely monitored, but at least in the near-term, some of the heaviest rains will likely tend to be near the Fremont and Clyde vicinity on down toward Marion off to the south. Rainfall rates with the stronger storms over northwest OH and western Lake Erie have been on the order of 2 to 3 inches/hour and these general rates are likely to continue at least for a few more hours. Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches will be possible, with the heaviest amounts over northwest OH and this is where the greatest flash flooding impacts are likely to be over the next few hours. Some of the flash flooding may be severe and life-threatening. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_PhmO7mcM9Mva1cdPcxrRxj-gpKSjacmiS7D48Liuq2pkQW9_6TU6ZjwWI9otyMC6WMH= -jKy5U7Bu0dqqgkeG7EjDYI$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX... ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 43008386 42848322 41868240 40988211 40088212=20 39768250 39728298 39928351 40438396 41288416=20 42148430 42748424=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .