Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 24 2023 01:02:26 ACUS01 KWNS 240102 SWODY1 SPC AC 240100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN INTO OHIO AND VICINITY...AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two remain possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and northern North Dakota this evening into tonight. ....Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Mainly elevated convection is occurring this evening over Lake Erie and northern OH in a modest westerly low-level warm advection regime. Isolated hail and damaging winds will remain possible with these thunderstorms as they spread southward this evening along an MLCAPE gradient/surface front in a strong deep-layer shear environment. A very unstable airmass is present to the west of the ongoing convection across parts of Lower MI into northern IN/northwestern OH, with the 00Z DTW sounding showing 4200+ J/kg of MUCAPE. Even with this impressive thermodynamic environment, warm mid-level temperatures and residual capping may continue to inhibit robust thunderstorm development for several more hours this evening. But, there are still indications that additional thunderstorms will develop later tonight across Lower MI as a weak mid-level perturbation over northern MN/WI and southern Ontario moves eastward along the northern periphery of prominent upper ridging centered over the Plains. If this convection develops, it should become severe given the ample MUCAPE present, and pose some threat for both large hail and damaging winds as is spreads south-southeastward across OH tonight through early Thursday morning. Given favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature, a tornado or two may also occur with any surface-based supercell. ....North Dakota into Northwestern Minnesota... A couple of thunderstorms are ongoing across northern ND this evening along/near a surface boundary. This activity should continue to pose some threat for large hail and severe wind gusts over the next few hours as it spreads gradually eastward across ND before eventually weakening. See Mesoscale Discussion 2030 for more details on the near-term threat across this area. ...Gleason.. 08/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .