Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2030
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 24 2023 00:03:52

ACUS11 KWNS 240003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240003=20
NDZ000-240130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northwest and north-central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653...

Valid 240003Z - 240130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across parts of northwest into
north-central North Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and satellite imagery
depict a modifying warm frontal zone extending east-southeastward
across parts of north-central ND. Along and south of the frontal
zone, a corridor of high theta-e air is in place -- characterized by
upper 80s/lower 90s temperatures and upper 60s dewpoints. As a
cluster of slowly evolving/organizing storms over parts of northwest
ND tracks generally east-southeastward through this corridor, a
modest increase in storm intensity is possible. While a long/mostly
straight hodograph (45-55 kt of effective shear) will favor
organized clusters and splitting supercell structures, left-movers
may have a tendency to drift to the cooler/stable side of the
surface boundary. Any right-moving storms that maintain residence
time along/immediately south of the front will pose a risk for large
hail (up to 2 inches with maintained supercell structures) and
locally severe gusts.

...Weinman.. 08/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5gZJoqCi6NqysquC35xumN_8LTwshsG1E77xlC2e3MzaBPd6CCRLYG8H49fgjSj3Y_5QhD-uz=
kzyLqfY6FeM4qsFcqA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   47600163 47840194 48000209 48240205 48530190 48580184
            48640161 48620147 48500112 48040051 47720039 47460056
            47390091 47600163=20


=3D =3D =3D
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